Putin and His Four Black Swans

Here we are at the end of 2014 and about to kick off the new year. Many writers take this time to do a recap of the year or even make predictions of what may happen in the next 365 days. I thought I’d have a go at what I believe will be the most important event yet to happen. Namely, this “face off” between Obama and Putin will come to a head.

Let me begin by explaining that Putin, like him or hate him, is no idiot. The man is a chess Grand Master and in regards to the rough and tumble world of Russian politics, it takes a pretty crafty individual to rise to the top of the heap. As the former head of the KGB, he’s no Johnny-come-lately to the geopolitical world. Compared to Vladimir Putin, Barack Obama is a rank amateur.

Recently, the globe has experienced a sudden drop in oil prices. This was all simply the law of supply and demand. Specifically, the alliance of the Saudi Arabians and the US State Department. Much to the chagrin of their OPEC partners, the Saudis have agreed to over produce oil in order to drive down it’s world market price. The idea was to recreate the same scenario that brought the old USSR to her knees in the 1980s by the Reagan and H.W. Bush administrations. But, yet again, the brilliant US government and their crackpot team of Keynesian economists continue to overlook the long term consequences of such a short sighted policy.

The US government’s attempts to cripple the Russian economy by destroying the ruble is beginning to fail. Believing that Russia was isolated from world markets was laughable at best. Coming to Russia’s side, China decided to stop sitting idly by and do something about this overt aggression on their neighbor’s currency. China’s Finance Minister Lian Ping, announced that China’s central bank was opening a currency swap for an estimated 150 billion US dollars in order for Russia to swap rubles for yuan. After the news broke on the South China Morning Post, the Russian currency strengthened by some 30 percent.

In a recent interview on King World News, former US Assistant Treasurer Dr. Paul Craig Roberts explained that Putin has four “black swan” options he could make to counter the US government’s move on the world chess board.

  • It’s estimated by 2015, Russia will have a debt obligation to several European nations to the tune of some 20 billion dollars. Putin could simply explain to these creditor nations that due to the recent political attacks on the Russian currency, they would stop payment on the debt for about a year. This would cause a shock throughout the European banking sector, causing a domino effect of bank failures.
  • The COMEX and all of those unbacked naked shorts! Russia could purchase most of the naked shorts in the COMEX by JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, The Royal Bank of Scotland, et al, and demand delivery of the gold and silver it had just purchased. This would expose the COMEX for the fraud that it is, as nothing more than a derivatives market, and cause a default. Imagine the fall out on world markets of trillions of dollars of derivatives exploding overnight. This would make the 2008 financial collapse look like a just a few foreclosures.
  • Russia could just simply let the ruble fall. As the Russian currency weakens, the dollar strengthens in comparison. In turn, Putin would sell Russian oil on the market in dollars, just as the US government likes it, and then buy up rubles. Once Russia is satisfied that it had removed enough rubles from the foreign banks, Putin could then turn around and demand payment exclusively in rubles for Russian oil.
  • Russia could refuse to sell oil to NATO member countries. The result being, a break up of NATO and possibly even Germany leaving the EU and causing the Union’s demise and the destruction of the Euro. The weaker European nations may also want to join the trade agreement within the BRIC nations, strengthening not only Russia’s position, but China’s position on the world stage.

As Putin sees it, he doesn’t have to target the US directly. He has her allies in Europe who are desperately dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. The Europeans, on the other hand, are fully aware that they being caught in the cross fire of this geopolitical game between the Americans and Russians. Believe me, they don’t like it and are becoming quite reluctant to continue playing. After all, who wants to be a pawn anyway? If the NATO countries bail out of the pressure cooker their big brother in America has put them in, this would cause the collapse of any crippling of the Russian economy. It would also spell disaster for future ambitions of US hegemony in the world. Worst yet, a violent reaction may erupt from the US in answer for getting egg on their face.

Being an amateur chess player myself, I would never consider challenging chess Grand Master Garry Kasparov to a game where I bet the farm on it’s outcome. After witnessing the State Department’s failure in Benghazi and it’s failed attempt to frame President Assad for the chemical attacks in Syria, arming ISIS and aiding them to usurp Iraq, I’d say the US winning this chess match against Putin holds the same odds. Just to be clear, unlike our foreign policy, I wouldn’t stand up and shoot Kasparov from across the table at the first sign of defeat.

Oh, almost forgot, Happy New Year!

[Image credit : http://www.dcclothesline.com]


3 thoughts on “Putin and His Four Black Swans

  1. Um. Russia has as much as 400b remaining itself. China’s 150b is nothing. 20b is nothing. 50% of Russians depend on oil revenues. If Russia shuts off oil to Europe the problem gets even worse for them. China wants Siberia and is conquering the way Mexicans are conquering southern California and Texas, and only less dramatically than Russia is conquering Donbas. china isn’t looking to help Russia. China is operating in its interests.

    I live over here (in the east) and its getting pretty hard on people.



    But, If Not PUTIN; ‘The WHITE KNIGHT’, then Who Do YOU Want to Help the harmless NON shareholders Sue Re; TPP’s Secret ‘Death-Star-Chamber’ Tribunal Penalties?
    Will China, Iran, the Muslim World, et al, Support Putin in Suits?

    TPP, CETA, et al, ‘Trade’ Treaty Critics to Support Supreme Court Submission?

    Higher Taxes & More Cuts to Services to Pay Secret Penalties; NON Shareholders Have to Pay SHAREHOLDERS, corporate USA, Japan, Canada, et al.
    How Much are You Selling your Right to Sue the Global Corporate Economy for?

    It will be good for, not only the NON shareholders of the enterprises that can be generated by the on-going global “cooperation” of corporate treaties, agreements, partnerships, et al, including the Trans Pacific Partnership, the EU – Canada CETA, the China – Canada Investment Treaty, et al,
    for the potential shareholders, as well,
    who are quite interested to know if President Xi Jinping (China) will support Russia as a co-member of B.R.I.C.S. when President Putin uses his potential role as “The White Knight”.

    And, while President Putin’s potential support as “The WHITE KNIGHT” in the development of the CETAgreement, et al, litigation below can dramatically off-set the hundreds of billions of dollars due to the present & future sanctions levelled by American led, et al, corporations & financial institutions via their governments’ signing their global corporate economic treaties/”arrangements”,
    and the potential for making trillions of dollars for the Russian economy over the next 30 – 40 years & beyond,
    are the citizens (SHAREHOLDERS & NON shareholders) of Germany & JAPAN just being prudent in wanting to wait for the outcome of:
    1) The Submission to The SUPREME COURT of CANADA & the highest court in Germany, et al, to make their findings regarding “The Submission”:
    “The SHAREHOLDERS & Corporations of AMERICA, Australia, Canada, et al
    the harmless Canadian NON shareholders, both; Native & non Native, et al”?
    (see; davidehsmith.wordpress.com)

    2) “The MERKEL (Chancellor of Germany) Letter; To Sue, or, Be Sued”?
    (see; davidehsmith.wordpress.com)

    Have the federal representatives of the nations that are the potential signatories of CETA, TPP, et al, willingly provided the NON shareholders of China, Canada, Europe, the Trans Pacific nations, et al, with the aforementioned information? Are the federal representatives, et al, depriving the NON shareholders of Canada, et al, of the due diligence information that enables the family of the NON shareholders of Canada, et al, to make informed decisions regarding their financial planning?

    And, would a reasonable person conclude by a preponderance of the evidence, &/or, beyond a reasonable doubt, that these documents, et al, demonstrate that the SHAREHOLDERS of AMERICA, CANADA , the EU & Trans Pacific nations, et al, really do not care which NON shareholders pay them the punitive penalties, etc., by way of their secret (“Death-Star Chamber”) TRIBUNALS, as long as its not the SHAREHOLDERS who pay & not their corporations regardless of which country the corporations:
    1) operating from,
    2) maintain their headquarters,
    3) use to do their cyber banking, accounting, “taxation”, etc.
    4) et al?

    And, re; the CHINA – Canada Investment Treaty, et al, is it understandable why the “coveted” Hong Kong investor & his associates are “concerned” with the aforementioned findings of The SUPREME COURT of CANADA, et al, & the effects of the potential findings, et al, on the EU, AMERICA, the Trans Pacific nations, et al, treaties with CHINA, et al?

    In regard to arms sales; how about the sale of arms (non nuclear) in general in regard to the “trade” treaties that are continuing to be secretly negotiated and how will the Tribunals, both; B.R.I.C.S. & non BRICS, adjudicate, decide & penalize the NON SHAREHOLDERS for the sale of legitimate, semi- legitimate & “illegal” sales of arms within the signatories nations & the those of others, &/or, unaligned? Of particular, interest is China, which does have an treaty with Canada, which puts China “at odds” with other arms manufacturing & nuclear powers that it (China) does not have any “arrangements” with.
    Are these types of questions that your politicians & the corporate lobbyists calls “forget-me-nots” (“Buyer Beware”) that will be (maybe) worked out after the fast tracked signatures are obtained?

    And, what do you think is the significance of the line in The Submission to The Supreme Court of Canada ‘…And, lest one forgets that the revelation of the present perilous international treaties/’arrangements’ began with the regard for the rights of Native Canadians as per the Treaties/”arrangements” that corporate Canada & the Government of Canada have ‘foisted’ upon Native Canadians…’? What are the various ways that this line will cost the SHAREHOLDERS, et al?

    On the other hand, it may be worth repeating yet again,
    ‘What the TREATY of VERSAILLES was to the 20th century PALES in COMPARISON to the TPP, CETA, C-CIT, NAFTA, et al, in the 21st’.

    And, how will YOUR submission to YOUR highest court IMPROVE upon The Submission that is presently before The Supreme Court of Canada?

    David E.H. Smith
    – Researcher
    – ‘Qui tam…’
    Please consider sharing the enclosed information & questions with 10 members of your family, friends, associates in order that they can use the due diligence info to make more informed decision about their families’ financial planning, & then they can share it with 10 others…
    For more Information & Questions re; The Relationship between Human (Nature) Rights & Economics by way of the C-CI Treaty, the CET Agreement, TPP, et al, and The WAD Accord
    see; davidehsmith.wordpress.com


  3. I am all for the Black Swan to crush this country and see how well your goverment leaders fall on there face. I wish this country be totally destroyed for the actions they do. This country has destroyed itself so it’s time to start over. I want a hell raising terrorism to the US. I never have trusted our government for anything. Now I hope this will wake them up after it is to late. Please Russia and China crush the US with unleashing the UBS. The only difference between our government and terroism is how you spell it. Good Luck Black Swan..


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